Hot streaks in artistic, cultural, and scientific careers

์ €์ž: Lu Liu, Yang Wang, Roberta Sinatra, C. Lee Giles, Chaoming Song, Dashun Wang | ๋‚ ์งœ: 2018 | DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0315-8 📄 PDF


Essence

Figure 1

Figure 1: The hot streak phenomenon in artistic, cultural and scienti๏ฌc careers. aโ€“c, ฯ†(N โˆ—, N โˆ—โˆ—),

์˜ˆ์ˆ ๊ฐ€, ์˜ํ™”๊ฐ๋…, ๊ณผํ•™์ž์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ์—์„œ 'ํ•ซ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆญ(hot streak)' ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ๋ณดํŽธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ๋†’์€ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์˜ ์ž‘์—…๋“ค์ด ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฐ์ง‘ํ™”๋˜์–ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๋Š” ํŒจํ„ด์ž„์„ ์ž…์ฆํ•จ.

Motivation

Achievement

Figure 1

Figure 1: The hot streak phenomenon in artistic, cultural and scienti๏ฌc careers. aโ€“c, ฯ†(N โˆ—, N โˆ—โˆ—),

How

Figure 2

Figure 2: The Hot-streak Model. aโ€“c, ฮ“(N) for one a artist, b movie director and c scien-

Originality

Limitation & Further Study

Evaluation

Novelty: 5/5 Technical Soundness: 4/5 Significance: 5/5 Clarity: 4/5 Overall: 4/5

์ดํ‰: ์ฐฝ์˜์  ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ์—์„œ ํ•ซ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆญ์˜ ๋ณดํŽธ์„ฑ๊ณผ ๋ฉ”์ปค๋‹ˆ์ฆ˜์„ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์™€ ์ˆ˜ํ•™์  ๋ชจ๋ธ๋กœ ์ฒ˜์Œ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•œ ํ˜์‹ ์  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ. ๊ฐœ์ธ ์„ฑ๊ณต ์˜ˆ์ธก, ์ฐฝ์˜์„ฑ ์ •์ฑ… ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ, ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ๊ณผํ•™ ์ดํ•ด์— ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ํ•จ์˜๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‹ˆ๋‚˜, ์ธ๊ณผ์„ฑ ๊ทœ๋ช…๊ณผ ๊ฐœ์ธ ๋งฅ๋ฝ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์˜ ํ›„์† ๊ณผ์ œ ์กด์žฌ.

๊ฐ™์ด ๋ณด๋ฉด ์ข‹์€ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ

๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ
์ฐฝ์˜์  ์ปค๋ฆฌ์–ด์—์„œ ์„ฑ๊ณผ ํŒจํ„ด ๋ถ„์„์˜ ์ด๋ก ์  ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•จ
๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ
956๋ฒˆ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ ์ค‘ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜ ์‹คํŒจ๊ฐ€ ์ดํ›„ ์„ฑ๊ณผ์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ, ์ฆ‰ ํ•ซ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆญ์Šค์™€ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ ํƒ€์ž„๋ผ์ธ ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ
์ฐฝ์˜์  ๊ฐœ์ธ์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ ํŒจํ„ด๊ณผ ํ•ซ ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆญ ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๋Š” ์ง์ ‘์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค.
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ‘๊ทผ
๊ณผํ•™์ž ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ์—์„œ์˜ ์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ง‘์ค‘ ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ ๋ถ„์„ํ•จ
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ‘๊ทผ
์ €์ž ์ˆœ์„œ์™€ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๋„ ์ธ์ • ์ฒด๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ด๋‹ค.
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ‘๊ทผ
๊ณผํ•™์ž ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ ๊ถค์ ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก ์ด๋‚˜ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์•ˆ์  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ด๋‹ค.
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ‘๊ทผ
์˜ˆ์ˆ ยท๊ณผํ•™ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ์—์„œ์˜ 'hot streak'์™€ ์ฃผ์š” ์ธ๋ฌผ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์—ฌ ๋…์ฐฝ์„ฑยทํ˜์‹ ์„ฑ์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ํŒจํ„ด์„ ์ฐธ์กฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ‘๊ทผ
์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ ์ „๋ฐ˜์— ๊ฑธ์นœ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ๊ณผ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ ํŒจํ„ด์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ์ ‘๊ทผ๋ฒ•์„ ์ทจํ•œ๋‹ค.
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ‘๊ทผ
๊ณผํ•™์ž ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ ์„ฑ๊ณผ์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์  ํŒจํ„ด์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•จ
ํ›„์† ์—ฐ๊ตฌ
์˜ˆ์ˆ ยท๊ณผํ•™ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ์˜ ํ•ซ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆญ ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „ ๋งฅ๋ฝ์—์„œ ํ™•์žฅ ๋ถ„์„ํ•จ
์‘์šฉ ์‚ฌ๋ก€
975๋ฒˆ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์€ ํ•ซ์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆญ(์„ฑ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์ง‘์ค‘๋˜๋Š” ์‹œ๊ธฐ)๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ด€๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํ•™์ œ๊ฐ„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์ง€์› ํŒจํ„ด ๋ฐ ์ธ์šฉ๋„์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์‹ค์ œ ํŽ€๋”ฉ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ๋ถ„์„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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๐ŸŽง Audio Overview

์ด ๋…ผ๋ฌธ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ๋ฅผ ํŒŸ์บ์ŠคํŠธํ˜• ์˜ค๋””์˜ค๋กœ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (Gemini ยท ํ‚ค๋Š” ๋ธŒ๋ผ์šฐ์ €์—๋งŒ ์ €์žฅ ยท ์™„์„ฑ๋ณธ์€ ์ด๋ฉ”์ผ๋กœ๋„ ์ „์†ก)
โ–ธ ๊ณ ๊ธ‰: ๊ตฌ์„ฑ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ(๋Œ€๋ณธ ์ž‘์„ฑ ์ง€์นจ) ์ง์ ‘ ์ˆ˜์ •